Residents and vacationers from Florida to the Carolinas should be prepared for what could be a stormy holiday weekend.
A low pressure system off Florida still shows a low chance of developing into a tropical climate, but is expected to bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds, dangerous surf and rip currents along parts of the southeastern United States through the weekend, the National Hurricane Center said.
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AccuWeather forecasters said the “area of disturbed weather” stretches from northern Florida to North Carolina.
According to the Hurricane Center, the system is generally moving north and is expected to move inland into the Carolinas late Saturday or Sunday.
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Will the system off the coast of Florida strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm?
The system is unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves north along the coast, NHC forecasters said.
While water temperatures are warm enough to support a tropical storm, AccuWeather forecasters agree that the likelihood is low.
However, if the system spends enough time above water, it is possible.
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“Sometimes it takes two to three days for a complex of storms to develop into a tropical system,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Katlowski said. The most likely scenario is for the system to move quickly inland.
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Here’s the latest from the NHC as of 8 a.m. May 26:
What is there and where are they?
- System outside of Florida: A broad nontropical area of low pressure is located east of the northeast coast of Florida. This system, along with another off the southeastern US coast, is creating a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
- Tropical Wave 1: A new tropical wave moved to the shores of Africa. It is located southeast of Cape Verde off Sierra Leone. Track it? 15W between 02N and 12N.
- Tropical Wave 2: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is southwest of Cape Verde. It is moving west at about 13 mph. If you want to track it, it’s 26W and 12N.
- Tropical Wave 3: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is east of Barbados. It is moving west at 13 miles per hour. Track it at 43W and extend south of 12N.
- Tropical Wave 4: Another tropical wave is east of Grenada and Barbados, further east than Tropical Wave 3. It is also moving west at 13 mph. Follow it at 57 west latitude and extend south from 12 north latitude to Suriname.
How likely is the system to strengthen off Florida?
- Probability of formation after 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
- Probability of forming after seven days: Low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be affected?
A low pressure system is forecast to bring gusty winds, dangerous surf and choppy currents to parts of the southeastern United States over the weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center, heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia over the next few days. Hazardous sea conditions are expected over coastal and offshore waters where gale and gale warnings are in effect.
The worst conditions will occur where the circulation associated with the system moves ashore, which is expected along a strip stretching from Georgia to the Carolinas. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph could affect the eastern Carolinas, with possible power outages. According to AccuWeather forecasters, some storms could bring strong wind gusts and even damage near coastal waters.
According to AccuWeather, rain could affect the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday night.
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Coastal flooding and beach erosion are possible from southern New Jersey to northeast Florida, along with frequent and strong rip currents.
According to the Hurricane Center, a combination of weather systems could bring 10 to 13 feet to Northeast Florida starting today and spreading south to Cape Canaveral by Saturday afternoon. Gusty winds will affect Northeast Florida this afternoon through Saturday morning. Seas will be even higher during the strongest winds, peaking at 15 to 19 feet. Winds and seas are expected to ease Saturday night into Sunday as the system moves north.
If the storm does not stall in the Southeast, the weather should improve over much of Florida and southern Georgia by Memorial Day. Surfing conditions are also likely to improve.
At this point, it is too early to determine whether tropical waves will affect the US.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be alert.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your region
When is Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane Center, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Tropical forecast for the next seven days
Excessive rainfall is forecast
What is there?
The systems are currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What’s next?
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